Tivoli Stadion Tirol · Analysis updated 16:37 UTC
WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.05 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives WSG Wattens the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
WSG Wattens win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
WSG Wattens home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Grazer AK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates WSG Wattens to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for WSG Wattens and 1.05 for Grazer AK, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–16.0%
Recent form
WSG Wattens
- 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Liefering · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Vienna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leithaprodersdorf · 4-0 (W)
Grazer AK
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalsdorf · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SCR Altach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is WSG Wattens win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.