Tivoli Stadion Tirol · Referee Stefan Ebner, Austria · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.36 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Sturm Graz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
WSG Wattens home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sturm Graz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
WSG Wattens
- 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Liefering · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Vienna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leithaprodersdorf · 4-0 (W)
Sturm Graz
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Floridsdorfer AC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-14T16:00:00.000Z · WSG Wattens 1-0 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-03T19:30:00.000Z · WSG Wattens 3-1 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)
- 2024-12-07T16:00:00.000Z · WSG Wattens 0-3 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)
- 2024-08-31T17:30:00.000Z · WSG Wattens 2-4 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-25T13:30:00.000Z · WSG Wattens 0-2 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)
- 2023-10-01T12:30:00.000Z · WSG Wattens 0-1 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)
- 2023-03-19T16:00:00.000Z · WSG Wattens 0-2 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)
- 2022-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · WSG Wattens 1-2 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-12T16:00:00.000Z · WSG Wattens 2-2 Sturm Graz (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.