Tivoli Stadion Tirol · Referee Achim Untergasser, Austria · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.35 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives TSV Hartberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
WSG Wattens home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
TSV Hartberg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TSV Hartberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 27% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for WSG Wattens and 1.35 for TSV Hartberg, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
WSG Wattens
- 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Liefering · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Vienna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leithaprodersdorf · 4-0 (W)
TSV Hartberg
- 2026-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ried · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.