Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.74 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Wuhan Three Towns the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.74

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Wuhan Three Towns home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shandong Luneng away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.74 goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.74 for Shandong Luneng, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Wuhan Three Towns win39%

Draw22%

Shandong Luneng win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.3%
2–18.1%
1–28.1%
2–27.1%
1–05.4%

Recent form

Wuhan Three Towns

2026-10-11T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Shenyang Urban · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Hangzhou Greentown · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Henan Jianye · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Youth Island · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Jonoon · 5-1 (W)

Shandong Luneng

2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sichuan Jiuniu · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Youth Island · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-14T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Jonoon · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chengdu Better City	27	15	7	5	20	52
2	Dalian Zhixing	27	13	4	10	0	43
3	Beijing Guoan	27	12	10	5	19	41
4	Shandong Luneng	27	13	5	9	3	38
5	Yunnan Yukun	27	11	5	11	-3	38
6	Qingdao Youth Island	27	8	14	5	-5	38
7	SHANGHAI SIPG	27	11	8	8	9	36
8	Shanghai Shenhua	27	13	5	9	12	34
9	Chongqing Tongliang Long	27	7	11	9	-5	32
10	Tianjin Teda	28	11	8	9	6	31
11	Hangzhou Greentown	27	10	6	11	0	31
12	Sichuan Jiuniu	27	8	5	14	-11	29
13	Henan Jianye	28	8	10	10	-3	28
14	Shenyang Urban	27	7	5	15	-13	26
15	Wuhan Three Towns	27	5	12	10	-7	22
16	Qingdao Jonoon	27	6	3	18	-22	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.