Wuhan Sports Centre · Referee Jianxin Du, China · Analysis updated 02:16 UTC
Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.50 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Wuhan Three Towns the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wuhan Three Towns home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sichuan Jiuniu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Wuhan Three Towns
- 2026-10-11T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Shenyang Urban · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Hangzhou Greentown · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Henan Jianye · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Youth Island · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Jonoon · 5-1 (W)
Sichuan Jiuniu
- 2026-10-09T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Henan Jianye · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shandong Luneng · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Hangzhou Greentown · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Shenyang Urban · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
- 2026-04-05T11:00:00.000Z · Wuhan Three Towns 2-5 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
- 2025-10-24T11:35:00.000Z · Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
- 2025-06-18T12:00:00.000Z · Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
- 2024-08-03T12:00:00.000Z · Wuhan Three Towns 4-1 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
- 2024-04-14T12:00:00.000Z · Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)
- 2021-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu (League One)
- 2021-07-28T12:00:00.000Z · Wuhan Three Towns 5-1 Sichuan Jiuniu (League One)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 47 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 7 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 |
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 31 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.