· Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Würzburger FV vs Kornburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Würzburger FV and 2.32 for Kornburg, a combined total of 4.02. That distribution gives Kornburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kornburg win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Würzburger FV home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kornburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–16.0%
Recent form
Würzburger FV
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Hof · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kornburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ASV Neumarkt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ammerthal · 2-1 (W)
Kornburg
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jahn Regensburg II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gebenbach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-14T13:00:00.000Z · Würzburger FV 1-1 Kornburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2025-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · Würzburger FV 0-5 Kornburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2024-10-25T17:00:00.000Z · Würzburger FV 0-5 Kornburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2024-07-20T13:00:00.000Z · Würzburger FV 1-1 Kornburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2024-02-23T18:00:00.000Z · Würzburger FV 0-3 Kornburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2023-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · Würzburger FV 1-1 Kornburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2023-04-28T17:00:00.000Z · Würzburger FV 1-0 Kornburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2022-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · Würzburger FV 0-1 Kornburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
Oberliga - Bayern Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cham | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Würzburger FV | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Gebenbach | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Eintracht Bamberg | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 5 | Kornburg | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 24 |
| 6 | Bayern Hof | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Jahn Regensburg II | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Fortuna Regensburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 21 |
| 9 | Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | Stadeln | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 | Neudrossenfeld | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 12 | Ammerthal | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 | Ingolstadt II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Weiden | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Großbardorf | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 | DJK Bamberg | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -15 | 11 |
| 17 | Nordlingen | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 18 | ASV Neumarkt | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kornburg win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.