· Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Würzburger FV vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Würzburger FV and 1.22 for Viktoria Aschaffenburg, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Würzburger FV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Würzburger FV win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Würzburger FV home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Viktoria Aschaffenburg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Würzburger FV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Würzburger FV and 1.22 for Viktoria Aschaffenburg, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Würzburger FV
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stadeln · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Regensburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Weiden · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Hof · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kornburg · 1-1 (D)
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiden · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern Hof · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kornburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs ASV Neumarkt · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Bayern Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cham | 16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 43 |
| 2 | Würzburger FV | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Bayern Hof | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Eintracht Bamberg | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 28 |
| 5 | Kornburg | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 27 |
| 6 | Gebenbach | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | Jahn Regensburg II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 26 |
| 8 | Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| 9 | Fortuna Regensburg | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 22 |
| 10 | Stadeln | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 21 |
| 11 | Neudrossenfeld | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 19 |
| 12 | Großbardorf | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 19 |
| 13 | Weiden | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -8 | 17 |
| 14 | Ammerthal | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 15 |
| 15 | DJK Bamberg | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -14 | 14 |
| 16 | Nordlingen | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 14 |
| 17 | Ingolstadt II | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ASV Neumarkt | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Würzburger FV win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.