Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia Aachen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Würzburger Kickers and 1.90 for Alemannia Aachen, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Alemannia Aachen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Alemannia Aachen win

46.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Würzburger Kickers home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Alemannia Aachen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alemannia Aachen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 32% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Würzburger Kickers and 1.90 for Alemannia Aachen, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Würzburger Kickers win32%

Draw22%

Alemannia Aachen win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.3%
1–28.9%
2–17.2%
2–26.9%
0–16.0%

Recent form

Würzburger Kickers

2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart II · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 2-6 (L)

Alemannia Aachen

2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-5 (L)
2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Eupen · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · Würzburger Kickers 1-0 Alemannia Aachen (3. Liga)

3. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	11	8	1	2	14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	7	2	2	15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	6	3	2	6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	11	5	2	4	6	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	5	2	4	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	5	2	4	-1	17
7	Hoffenheim II	10	5	1	4	5	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	4	4	3	-2	16
9	SV Wehen	11	4	3	4	3	15
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	4	3	4	-2	15
11	SV Meppen	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Stuttgart II	11	4	2	5	-2	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	4	1	5	0	13
14	Preußen Münster	10	3	3	4	-3	12
15	Verl	11	3	3	5	-6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	3	3	5	-12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	3	2	6	-8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	2	4	5	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	2	4	4	-3	10
20	Havelse	11	2	3	6	-9	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Alemannia Aachen win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.