Flyeralarm Arena · Referee Wolfgang Haslberger, Germany · Analysis updated 06:17 UTC
Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Würzburger Kickers and 1.68 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Hansa Rostock the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hansa Rostock win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Würzburger Kickers home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hansa Rostock away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–27.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.80 | 52.2% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Home | 3.00 | 30.0% | 30.2% | 3.31 | +0.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.30 | 40.3% | 40.4% | 2.48 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.0% | 23.9% | 4.18 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 59.6% | 1.68 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 46.1% | 45.9% | 2.18 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.7% | 69.8% | 1.43 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.1% | 76.1% | 1.31 | -1.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Würzburger Kickers
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 2-6 (L)
Hansa Rostock
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Wehen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2020-06-27T12:00:00.000Z · Würzburger Kickers 3-1 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2019-11-30T13:00:00.000Z · Würzburger Kickers 0-1 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2019-02-17T12:00:00.000Z · Würzburger Kickers 0-2 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2018-08-25T12:00:00.000Z · Würzburger Kickers 4-0 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2018-02-10T13:00:00.000Z · Würzburger Kickers 1-3 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2017-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · Würzburger Kickers 0-3 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2016-04-23T12:00:00.000Z · Würzburger Kickers 2-1 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2015-11-07T13:00:00.000Z · Würzburger Kickers 0-0 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 7 | Hansa Rostock | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 8 | SV Wehen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Stuttgart II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | SV Meppen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Alemannia Aachen | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Waldhof Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 | Preußen Münster | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Verl | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Würzburger Kickers | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hansa Rostock win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.