· Analysis updated 17:39 UTC
Xankəndi FK vs Cəbrayıl Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Xankəndi FK and 1.79 for Cəbrayıl, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Cəbrayıl the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cəbrayıl win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cəbrayıl away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cəbrayıl to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 17% / 23% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Xankəndi FK and 1.79 for Cəbrayıl, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 47%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 0–211.8%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.3%
Recent form
Xankəndi FK
Cəbrayıl
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karvan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Baku Sportinq · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mingəçevir · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Xankəndi FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Şimal · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cəbrayıl | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Şahdağ | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | MOIK | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Səbail | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Karvan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Şimal | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cəbrayıl win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.