· Analysis updated 08:34 UTC
Xankəndi FK vs Şahdağ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Xankəndi FK and 1.72 for Şahdağ, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Şahdağ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Şahdağ win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Şahdağ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 19% / 24% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Xankəndi FK and 1.72 for Şahdağ, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 57% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–211.1%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.5%
Recent form
Xankəndi FK
Şahdağ
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Mingəçevir | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Şahdağ win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.