Xelajú vs Diriangén Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Xelajú and 1.37 for Diriangén, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Xelajú the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Xelajú win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Diriangén away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Xelajú to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Xelajú and 1.37 for Diriangén, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Xelajú win55%

Draw21%

Diriangén win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–18.8%
2–06.9%
3–16.7%
1–06.5%

Recent form

Xelajú

Diriangén

2026-09-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs H&H Export · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Matagalpa · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Managua · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Jalapa · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Estelí · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

CONCACAF Central American Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	6	6	0	0	12	18
2	LD Alajuelense	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	CD Motagua	6	3	3	0	9	12
4	CS Cartagines	6	3	3	0	7	12
5	Deportivo Saprissa	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Alianza	6	3	1	2	-2	10
7	CD Marathon	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	CS Herediano	4	2	1	1	2	7
9	Firpo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
10	Municipal	4	1	3	0	1	6
11	Plaza Amador	4	2	0	2	0	6
12	Mixco	4	2	0	2	0	6
13	Real Estelí	4	2	0	2	-1	6
14	FAS	4	1	1	2	0	4
15	Xelajú	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Alianza FC	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	Diriangén	4	1	0	3	-6	3
18	UMECIT	4	0	0	4	-6	0
19	Antigua GFC	4	0	0	4	-7	0
20	Verdes	4	0	0	4	-13	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Xelajú win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.