Estadio Mario Camposeco · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Xelajú vs Mixco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Xelajú and 1.35 for Mixco, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Xelajú the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Xelajú win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mixco away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Xelajú to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for Xelajú and 1.35 for Mixco, a combined 3.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–06.9%
- 2–26.3%
Recent form
Xelajú
Mixco
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobán Imperial · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Marquense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Suchitepéquez · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Antigua GFC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Malacateco · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guastatoya | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Municipal | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Marquense | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Xelajú | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Mixco | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Aurora | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Xelajú win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.