Estadio Municipal de Chapín · Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Xerez Deportivo vs Linares Deportivo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Xerez Deportivo and 1.10 for Linares Deportivo, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Linares Deportivo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Xerez Deportivo home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Linares Deportivo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Linares Deportivo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 32% / 30% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Xerez Deportivo and 1.10 for Linares Deportivo, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–27.6%
Recent form
Xerez Deportivo
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Egabrense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Roque Lepe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Betis C · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bollullos · 1-0 (W)
Linares Deportivo
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estepona · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Lucena · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Don Benito | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Estepona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Linares Deportivo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Puente Genil | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Tenerife II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Sevilla Atletico | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Sanluqueño | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Xerez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marbella | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Atlético Central | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.