· Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Xerez Deportivo vs San Roque Lepe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Xerez Deportivo and 1.29 for San Roque Lepe, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Xerez Deportivo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Xerez Deportivo home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Roque Lepe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Xerez Deportivo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Xerez Deportivo and 1.29 for San Roque Lepe, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Xerez Deportivo
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Egabrense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Roque Lepe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Betis C · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bollullos · 1-0 (W)
San Roque Lepe
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceuta II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Córdoba II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiclana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conil · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Central · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dos Hermanas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Utrera | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Betis C | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Tomares | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Xerez Deportivo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Portuense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Pozoblanco | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | San Roque Lepe | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ceuta II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiclana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Conil | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Egabrense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Linense | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Bollullos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Sevilla III | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.