· Analysis updated 04:50 UTC
Xerez vs Don Benito Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Xerez and 1.07 for Don Benito, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Don Benito the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Xerez home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Don Benito away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Don Benito to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Xerez and 1.07 for Don Benito, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.2%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Xerez
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Don Benito · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Badajoz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estepona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Conquense · 0-0 (D)
Don Benito
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Linares Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Central · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad de Lucena · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estepona · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanluqueño · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recreativo Huelva | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Real Betis II | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Don Benito | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Sevilla Atletico | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Estepona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Puente Genil | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Sanluqueño | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Tenerife II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Xerez | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Atlético Central | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.