Gozo Stadium · Referee D. Casha · Analysis updated 06:22 UTC
Xewkija Tigers vs Gudja United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Xewkija Tigers and 1.13 for Gudja United, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Xewkija Tigers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Xewkija Tigers win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Xewkija Tigers home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Gudja United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Xewkija Tigers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Xewkija Tigers and 1.13 for Gudja United, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–18.1%
Recent form
Xewkija Tigers
- 2026-04-25T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Melita · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gudja United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-03-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nadur Youngsters · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-01-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zabbar St. Patrick · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-12-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Melita · 1-0 (W)
Gudja United
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zurrieq · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Andrews · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Vittoriosa Stars · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Melita · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Vittoriosa Stars · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA Trophy table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Gzira United | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Naxxar Lions | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Birkirkara | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
| 6 | Zurrieq | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Balzan FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Mosta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Floriana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Birzebbuga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Pietà Hotspurs | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Qala Saints | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Tarxien Rainbows | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | Hibernians | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | St. Andrews | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Santa Lucía | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Xewkija Tigers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Swieqi United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | Gudja United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Mgarr United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 | Victoria Hotspurs | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 | Fgura United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 24 | Mqabba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Sirens | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Sliema Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Marsaxlokk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Melita | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Pembroke Athleta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | Victoria Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Xaghra United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Nadur Youngsters | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Qormi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Marsa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Vittoriosa Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 36 | Ghajnsielem | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 37 | Kercem Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 38 | Mtarfa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 39 | Zebbug Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Xewkija Tigers win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.