· Analysis updated 11:16 UTC
XV de Jaú U20 vs Corinthians U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for XV de Jaú U20 and 1.25 for Corinthians U20, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Corinthians U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.5% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
XV de Jaú U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Corinthians U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corinthians U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 29% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for XV de Jaú U20 and 1.25 for Corinthians U20, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.7%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
XV de Jaú U20
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasco Audax U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarani U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto Football U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Referencia U20 · 2-1 (W)
Corinthians U20
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jabaquara U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Suzano U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapirense U20 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.