· Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
XV de Jaú U20 vs Luverdense U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for XV de Jaú U20 and 1.10 for Luverdense U20, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives XV de Jaú U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
XV de Jaú U20 win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
XV de Jaú U20 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates XV de Jaú U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for XV de Jaú U20 and 1.10 for Luverdense U20, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
XV de Jaú U20
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Osasco Audax U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarani U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto Football U20 · 0-1 (L)
Luverdense U20
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletico PR U20 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-01-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trindade U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-01-06T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-01-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Jaú U20 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
São Paulo Youth Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is XV de Jaú U20 win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.