XV de Piracicaba vs Comercial Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for XV de Piracicaba and 0.89 for Comercial, a combined total of 1.91. That distribution gives XV de Piracicaba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.02 – 0.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

XV de Piracicaba home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Comercial away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates XV de Piracicaba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 32% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for XV de Piracicaba and 0.89 for Comercial, a combined 1.91 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

XV de Piracicaba win38%

Draw32%

Comercial win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–015.1%
0–014.8%
1–113.4%
0–113.2%
2–07.7%

Recent form

XV de Piracicaba

2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs União São João · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Comercial · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Noroeste · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Noroeste · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Comercial · 0-2 (L)

Comercial

2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs São José EC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs São José EC · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EC São Bernardo · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-31T23:00:00.000Z · H vs EC São Bernardo · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Noroeste · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Copa Paulista table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	São José EC	10	6	3	1	8	21
2	União São João	12	4	7	1	4	19
3	Primavera SP	10	5	3	2	14	18
4	Grêmio Prudente	12	5	3	4	2	18
5	Linense	8	4	3	1	7	15
6	EC São Bernardo	8	4	0	4	4	12
7	Noroeste	10	2	6	2	-1	12
8	Juventus	8	3	2	3	5	11
9	Bandeirante SP	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Comercial	10	3	2	5	-2	11
11	Santo André	6	3	1	2	-1	10
12	Paulista	8	3	1	4	-6	10
13	XV de Piracicaba	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Marília	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Oeste	6	1	1	4	-7	4
16	São Caetano	8	0	2	6	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.