· Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Yagüe vs Pradejón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Yagüe and 1.73 for Pradejón, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Pradejón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Pradejón win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yagüe home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pradejón away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 0–212.2%
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Yagüe
- 2026-05-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Calahorra · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-04-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Comillas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vianés · 0-1 (L)
Pradejón
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs La Calzada · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Varea · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Balsamaiso · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Autol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Berceo · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T15:30:00.000Z · Yagüe 1-1 Pradejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2025-11-09T15:30:00.000Z · Yagüe 0-0 Pradejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2021-02-28T15:30:00.000Z · Yagüe 1-2 Pradejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2020-11-29T11:00:00.000Z · Yagüe 2-1 Pradejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2020-01-25T17:30:00.000Z · Yagüe 0-3 Pradejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
- 2019-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · Yagüe 2-2 Pradejón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 16)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Varea | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Alfaro | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Berceo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | La Calzada | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Anguiano | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Pradejón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Calahorra | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Oyonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Agoncillo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasancio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Comillas | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Yagüe | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 15 | Cenicero | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pradejón win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.