Yambol 1915 vs Neftochimic Burgas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.05 expected goals for Yambol 1915 and 1.38 for Neftochimic Burgas, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Yambol 1915 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Yambol 1915 win

70.9% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.05 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Yambol 1915 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yambol 1915 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.05 goals for Yambol 1915 and 1.38 for Neftochimic Burgas, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 71%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Yambol 1915 win71%

Draw15%

Neftochimic Burgas win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals64%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

3–17.8%
2–17.7%
4–15.9%
3–05.7%
2–05.6%

Recent form

Yambol 1915

2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodopa Smolyan · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Plovdiv · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rozova dolina · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Plovdiv · 4-2 (W)

Neftochimic Burgas

2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA 1948 · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rozova dolina · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	12	0	0	28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	9	1	2	15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	9	0	2	13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	7	1	3	8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	6	4	2	8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	6	2	4	15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	6	2	4	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	6	1	5	3	19
9	Sozopol	12	5	1	6	1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	3	7	2	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	4	2	6	1	14
12	Zagorets	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	2	5	5	-5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	2	2	8	-21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	2	1	8	-16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	1	3	8	-14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	2	0	10	-19	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Yambol 1915 win, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.