· Analysis updated 19:56 UTC
Yangon United vs Sagaing United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Yangon United and 1.30 for Sagaing United, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Yangon United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yangon United win
68.3% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yangon United home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sagaing United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yangon United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for Yangon United and 1.30 for Sagaing United, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.6%
- 1–16.1%
- 3–06.1%
Recent form
Yangon United
- 2026-09-08T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ezra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs GFA · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagaing United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagon · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yadanarbon · 3-2 (W)
Sagaing United
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagon · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs GFA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T09:00:00.000Z · A vs I.S.P.E · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-17T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ayeyawady United · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yangon Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Dagon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 3 | Yadanarbon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Sagaing United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Ayeyawady United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 11 | GFA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Myawady | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yangon United win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.