· Analysis updated 00:34 UTC
Yangon United vs Shan United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Yangon United and 1.62 for Shan United, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Yangon United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yangon United home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shan United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yangon United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Yangon United and 1.62 for Shan United, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.9%
Recent form
Yangon United
- 2026-09-08T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ezra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs GFA · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagaing United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagon · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yadanarbon · 3-2 (W)
Shan United
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hantharwady United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Ezra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ezra · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Myawady · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon Royals · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Yangon Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Yadanarbon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | GFA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Sagaing United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Ayeyawady United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Myawady | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.