· Analysis updated 01:45 UTC
Yangon United vs Yarmanya United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.07 expected goals for Yangon United and 0.80 for Yarmanya United, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Yangon United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yangon United win
82.1% probability
Expected goals
3.07 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yangon United home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yarmanya United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yangon United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 11% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.07 goals for Yangon United and 0.80 for Yarmanya United, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.1%
- 2–09.9%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–17.9%
- 4–07.7%
Recent form
Yangon United
- 2026-09-08T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Ezra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs GFA · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagaing United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagon · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yadanarbon · 3-2 (W)
Yarmanya United
- 2026-03-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Thitsar Arman · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-03-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Ayeyawady United · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-03-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Shan United · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-02-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagon Port · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-02-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs I.S.P.E · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Yangon Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Yadanarbon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | GFA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Sagaing United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Ayeyawady United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Myawady | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yangon United win, at 82.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.