Stadion Hristo Botev · Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Yantra 2019 vs Marek Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Yantra 2019 and 0.75 for Marek, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Yantra 2019 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yantra 2019 win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yantra 2019 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marek away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.1%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.9%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
Yantra 2019
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilski Sportist · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Marek · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-0 (W)
Marek
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chavdar Troyan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilski Sportist · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra 2019 · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · Yantra 2019 3-0 Marek (Second League)
- 2026-03-01T12:30:00.000Z · Yantra 2019 2-1 Marek (Second League)
- 2025-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · Yantra 2019 1-0 Marek (Second League)
- 2024-12-08T12:00:00.000Z · Yantra 2019 1-1 Marek (Second League)
- 2024-07-28T15:30:00.000Z · Yantra 2019 1-1 Marek (Second League)
- 2024-05-20T12:00:00.000Z · Yantra 2019 1-2 Marek (Second League)
- 2023-11-03T12:30:00.000Z · Yantra 2019 1-1 Marek (Second League)
- 2021-12-11T12:00:00.000Z · Yantra 2019 1-0 Marek (Second League)
- 2021-08-04T15:00:00.000Z · Yantra 2019 0-0 Marek (Second League)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Vihren | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Rilski Sportist | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Beroe | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | Marek | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 15 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yantra 2019 win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.