Yaracuyanos FC vs Deportivo Lara Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Yaracuyanos FC and 1.35 for Deportivo Lara, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Deportivo Lara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Deportivo Lara win

46.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.93 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Yaracuyanos FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Lara away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Yaracuyanos FC win26%

Draw28%

Deportivo Lara win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–113.9%
1–112.8%
0–010.3%
1–09.5%
0–29.4%

Recent form

Yaracuyanos FC

2026-10-25T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Atletico Barinas · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Urena SC · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-14T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 0-1 (L)

Deportivo Lara

2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Cabello II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Frontera · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaracuyanos FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · Yaracuyanos FC 0-1 Deportivo Lara (Segunda División)
2026-08-02T21:00:00.000Z · Yaracuyanos FC 2-2 Deportivo Lara (Segunda División)
2026-05-02T19:30:00.000Z · Yaracuyanos FC 1-2 Deportivo Lara (Segunda División)
2026-03-07T21:00:00.000Z · Yaracuyanos FC 1-1 Deportivo Lara (Segunda División)
2021-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · Yaracuyanos FC 1-3 Deportivo Lara (Primera División)
2021-07-25T23:00:00.000Z · Yaracuyanos FC 1-1 Deportivo Lara (Primera División)
2021-06-06T22:15:00.000Z · Yaracuyanos FC 1-0 Deportivo Lara (Primera División)
2021-04-17T22:30:00.000Z · Yaracuyanos FC 2-1 Deportivo Lara (Primera División)
2020-12-12T21:00:00.000Z · Yaracuyanos FC 0-3 Deportivo Lara (Primera División)
2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z · Yaracuyanos FC 1-1 Deportivo Lara (Primera División)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Lara	32	21	7	4	32	70
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	32	16	8	8	22	56
3	Yaracuyanos FC	32	16	7	9	19	55
4	Urena SC	32	12	12	8	3	48
5	Atletico el Vigia FC	32	12	8	12	-9	44
6	Zamora FC B	31	12	7	12	4	43
7	Club Atletico Barinas	32	10	5	17	-10	35
8	Puerto Cabello II	33	9	7	17	-14	34
9	Real Frontera	32	4	3	25	-47	15
1	Monagas II	25	13	6	6	11	45
2	Aragua FC	26	11	10	5	10	43
3	Petare FC	26	12	6	8	9	42
4	Bolívar	26	12	5	9	0	41
5	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	26	9	9	8	3	36
6	Mineros de Guyana	26	4	10	12	-10	22
7	Marítimo	15	5	5	5	0	20
8	Atletico Avila FC	26	1	11	14	-23	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Deportivo Lara win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.