Yarud Mariupol' vs Kolos Kovalivka II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Yarud Mariupol' and 0.83 for Kolos Kovalivka II, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Yarud Mariupol' the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Yarud Mariupol' win

64.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Yarud Mariupol' home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kolos Kovalivka II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yarud Mariupol' to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Yarud Mariupol' and 0.83 for Kolos Kovalivka II, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Yarud Mariupol' win64%

Draw21%

Kolos Kovalivka II win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–011.9%
2–011.7%
1–19.9%
2–19.8%
3–07.7%

Recent form

Yarud Mariupol'

2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Polissya II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Probiy Horodenka · 2-0 (W)

Kolos Kovalivka II

2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Polissya II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Probiy Horodenka · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Persha Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	13	7	4	2	7	25
2	SK Poltava	13	7	3	3	13	24
3	Yarud Mariupol'	13	7	3	3	7	24
4	Oleksandria	13	6	5	2	8	23
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	7	2	3	5	23
6	Kulykiv	12	6	3	3	11	21
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	4	5	3	2	17
8	Prykarpattia	13	4	4	5	-2	16
9	Nyva Ternopil	12	3	6	3	2	15
10	Metal Kharkiv	13	4	3	6	-3	15
11	Inhulets	11	4	2	5	-5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	4	1	7	-8	13
13	UCSA	12	2	5	5	-4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	2	4	5	-4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	13	2	3	8	-20	9
16	Polissya II	13	1	5	7	-9	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Yarud Mariupol' win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.