Kolos Stadium · Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Yarud Mariupol' vs Kulykiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Yarud Mariupol' and 1.42 for Kulykiv, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Yarud Mariupol' the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yarud Mariupol' home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kulykiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yarud Mariupol' to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Yarud Mariupol' and 1.42 for Kulykiv, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–08.0%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Yarud Mariupol'
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Polissya II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Probiy Horodenka · 2-0 (W)
Kulykiv
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SK Poltava · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Veres Rivne · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Yarud Mariupol' · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Inhulets | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Nyva Ternopil | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | UCSA | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.