Kolos Stadium · Analysis updated 02:48 UTC
Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Yarud Mariupol' and 1.04 for Polissya II, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Yarud Mariupol' the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yarud Mariupol' win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yarud Mariupol' home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polissya II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yarud Mariupol' to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Yarud Mariupol' and 1.04 for Polissya II, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–18.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–17.6%
Recent form
Yarud Mariupol'
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs UCSA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Polissya II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Probiy Horodenka · 2-0 (W)
Polissya II
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SK Poltava · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Probiy Horodenka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kulykiv · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | SK Poltava | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Yarud Mariupol' | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Oleksandria | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Kulykiv | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| 7 | Nyva Ternopil | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 9 | Inhulets | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Prykarpattia | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Metal Kharkiv | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | UCSA | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | Chernihiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Probiy Horodenka | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Polissya II | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yarud Mariupol' win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.