· Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Yate Town vs Berkhamsted Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Yate Town and 1.48 for Berkhamsted, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Berkhamsted the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yate Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Berkhamsted away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Berkhamsted to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Yate Town and 1.48 for Berkhamsted, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Yate Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sholing · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chippenham Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chippenham Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Devizes Town · 3-0 (W)
Berkhamsted
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sholing · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hendon · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · Yate Town 1-1 Berkhamsted (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · Yate Town 0-0 Berkhamsted (Non League Premier - Southern South)
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Plymouth Parkway | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Uxbridge | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 23 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Bath City | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | Gosport Borough | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Chertsey Town | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Taunton Town | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 11 | Berkhamsted | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 12 | Wimborne Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| 13 | Bracknell Town | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | Evesham United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Basingstoke Town | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Yate Town | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 | Sholing | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 11 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.