· Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
Yate Town vs Sholing Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Yate Town and 1.30 for Sholing, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Sholing the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yate Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sholing away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sholing to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 27% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Yate Town and 1.30 for Sholing, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Yate Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sholing · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chippenham Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chippenham Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Devizes Town · 3-0 (W)
Sholing
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Frome Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ebbsfleet United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yate Town · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-10T15:00:00.000Z · Yate Town 0-2 Sholing (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2025-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · Yate Town 0-0 Sholing (Non League Premier - Southern South)
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Bath City | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth Parkway | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Taunton Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Chertsey Town | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Frome Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Wimborne Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Bracknell Town | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Yate Town | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Evesham United | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Sholing | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Basingstoke Town | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.