Wüsterstrom Arena Ybbs · Analysis updated 19:26 UTC
Ybbs vs St. Pölten II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ybbs and 1.53 for St. Pölten II, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives St. Pölten II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ybbs home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Pölten II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Pölten II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Ybbs and 1.53 for St. Pölten II, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Ybbs
- 2026-06-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebreichsdorf · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Ortmann · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Korneuburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Pölten II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Langenrohr · 1-2 (L)
St. Pölten II
- 2026-07-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Donau · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Scheiblingkirchen · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-06-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Korneuburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ybbs · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-22T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Zwettl · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.