Campo de la Constitucion · Analysis updated 05:26 UTC
Yeclano vs Almería II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Yeclano and 0.68 for Almería II, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Yeclano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yeclano win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yeclano home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almería II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yeclano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 26% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Yeclano and 0.68 for Almería II, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.9%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Yeclano
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs La Nucía · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Estepona · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorca Deportiva · 2-2 (D)
Almería II
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Granada II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Málaga II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cantoria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Porcuna · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD San Pedro · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recreativo Huelva | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Real Betis II | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Don Benito | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Sevilla Atletico | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Estepona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Linares Deportivo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Puente Genil | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Sanluqueño | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Tenerife II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Xerez | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Atlético Central | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yeclano win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.