Campo de la Constitucion · Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
Yeclano vs La Nucía Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Yeclano and 0.81 for La Nucía, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Yeclano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.2% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yeclano home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
La Nucía away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yeclano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 32% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Yeclano and 0.81 for La Nucía, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.7%
- 2–08.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 64.1% vs market 55.7%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 64.1% | 1.56 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.1% | 68.0% | 1.47 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 27.6% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 40.2% | 40.2% | 2.49 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.3% | 72.2% | 1.39 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.75 | 32.2% | 32.0% | 3.13 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.6% | 59.8% | 1.67 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 35.9% | 2.79 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Yeclano
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs La Nucía · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Estepona · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorca Deportiva · 2-2 (D)
La Nucía
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeclano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Poblense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcoyano · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · Yeclano 0-1 La Nucía (Segunda División RFEF - Group 3)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ucam Murcia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Castellón II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | La Nucía | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cieza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Deportiva Minera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Alcoyano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Yeclano | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Intercity | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Elche II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Orihuela | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Mallorca II | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Atlético Baleares | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Poblense | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Peña Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Valencia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Real Murcia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.