· Analysis updated 13:14 UTC
Yelimay Semey 2 vs Shakhter Karagandy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.36 expected goals for Yelimay Semey 2 and 2.87 for Shakhter Karagandy, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Shakhter Karagandy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shakhter Karagandy win
88.1% probability
Expected goals
0.36 – 2.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yelimay Semey 2 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shakhter Karagandy away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shakhter Karagandy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 3% / 9% / 88% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.36 goals for Yelimay Semey 2 and 2.87 for Shakhter Karagandy, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
12%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
97%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–216.3%
- 0–315.6%
- 0–111.4%
- 0–411.2%
- 0–56.5%
Recent form
Yelimay Semey 2
- 2026-10-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Astana II · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-08T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Arys · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Turan Turkistan · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademiya Ontustik · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaiyq · 0-2 (L)
Shakhter Karagandy
- 2026-08-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Yelimay Semey 2 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Astana II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe Jas · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaspij Aktau 2 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tobol 2 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 56 | 62 |
| 2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 54 | 56 |
| 3 | Turan Turkistan | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 50 |
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 43 |
| 5 | Astana II | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Jaiyq | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 31 |
| 7 | Taraz | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -2 | 30 |
| 8 | Ekibastuz | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | -22 | 26 |
| 9 | Kaspij Aktau 2 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -12 | 25 |
| 10 | Khan Tengri | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -15 | 25 |
| 11 | Arys | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 24 |
| 12 | Aktobe Jas | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -31 | 23 |
| 13 | Tobol 2 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | -17 | 16 |
| 14 | Yelimay Semey 2 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 17 | -30 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shakhter Karagandy win, at 88.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.