Stadion Spartak · Referee D. Sakhi · Analysis updated 03:50 UTC
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Yelimay Semey and 1.33 for Aktobe, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Yelimay Semey the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yelimay Semey win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yelimay Semey home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aktobe away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–27.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 70.6% | 71.1% | 1.41 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 76.4% | 76.7% | 1.30 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.90 | 47.6% | 47.8% | 2.09 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.2% | 23.3% | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 29.2% | 28.9% | 3.46 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 53.0% | 52.2% | 1.92 | -0.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Yelimay Semey
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhetysu · 2-1 (W)
Aktobe
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kairat Almaty · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Yelimay Semey · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaspiy · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-30T14:00:00.000Z · Yelimay Semey 1-2 Aktobe (Cup)
- 2026-03-21T12:00:00.000Z · Yelimay Semey 4-1 Aktobe (Premier League)
- 2025-08-10T13:00:00.000Z · Yelimay Semey 2-1 Aktobe (Premier League)
- 2025-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Yelimay Semey 0-1 Aktobe (Premier League)
- 2024-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · Yelimay Semey 3-1 Aktobe (Premier League)
- 2024-06-19T15:00:00.000Z · Yelimay Semey 2-1 Aktobe (Cup)
- 2024-06-16T15:00:00.000Z · Yelimay Semey 2-2 Aktobe (Premier League)
- 2024-05-29T15:00:00.000Z · Yelimay Semey 0-2 Aktobe (Cup)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 29 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 68 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 29 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 37 | 64 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 53 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 51 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 41 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Zhenys | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 33 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 33 |
| 11 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | -12 | 30 |
| 12 | Irtysh | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | -15 | 29 |
| 13 | Altay | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 27 |
| 14 | Atyrau | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 27 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -18 | 26 |
| 16 | Kaisar | 29 | 4 | 13 | 12 | -15 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yelimay Semey win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.