Yemen vs Brunei Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Yemen and 0.45 for Brunei, a combined total of 4.95. That distribution gives Yemen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 96%, with the draw at 3%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 96% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Yemen win

95.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

4.50 – 0.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Yemen home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Brunei away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yemen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 96%, against 96% / 3% / 1% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Yemen and 0.45 for Brunei, a combined 4.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Yemen win96%

Draw3%

Brunei win1%

Double chance 1X

99%

Double chance 12

97%

Double chance X2

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals69%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

4–012.1%
5–010.9%
3–010.7%
6–08.2%
2–07.2%

Recent form

Yemen

2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lebanon · 2-0 (W)
2025-11-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Comoros · 4-4 (D)
2025-11-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bhutan · 7-1 (W)
2025-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunei · 9-0 (W)
2025-10-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Brunei · 2-0 (W)

Brunei

2026-06-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Timor-Leste · 1-3 (L)
2026-06-02T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Timor-Leste · 0-3 (L)
2026-03-31T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bhutan · 1-2 (L)
2025-11-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Lebanon · 0-3 (L)
2025-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Yemen · 0-9 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Asian Cup - Qualification table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tajikistan	6	4	2	0	11	14
2	Philippines	6	4	2	0	10	14
3	Maldives	6	1	0	5	-10	3
4	Timor-Leste	6	1	0	5	-11	3
1	Yemen	6	4	2	0	19	14
2	Lebanon	6	4	1	1	12	13
3	Bhutan	6	1	1	4	-12	4
4	Brunei	6	1	0	5	-19	3
1	Singapore	6	4	2	0	4	14
2	Hong Kong	6	2	2	2	0	8
3	Bangladesh	6	1	2	3	-2	5
4	India	6	1	2	3	-2	5
1	Thailand	6	5	0	1	11	15
2	Turkmenistan	6	4	0	2	4	12
3	Sri Lanka	6	3	0	3	-1	9
4	Chinese Taipei	6	0	0	6	-14	0
1	Syria	6	6	0	0	19	18
2	Myanmar	6	4	0	2	-3	12
3	Afghanistan	6	0	2	4	-7	2
4	Pakistan	6	0	2	4	-9	2
1	Vietnam	6	6	0	0	15	18
2	Malaysia	6	3	0	3	0	9
3	Laos	6	2	0	4	-12	6
4	Nepal	6	1	0	5	-3	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Yemen win, at 95.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 96% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.