· Analysis updated 10:03 UTC
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Mazıdağı Fosfatspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.39 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 2.64 for Mazıdağı Fosfatspor, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Mazıdağı Fosfatspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor win
85.1% probability
Expected goals
0.39 – 2.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yeni Malatyaspor home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mazıdağı Fosfatspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 4% / 11% / 85% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.39 goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 2.64 for Mazıdağı Fosfatspor, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
15%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–216.8%
- 0–314.8%
- 0–112.7%
- 0–49.8%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Yeni Malatyaspor
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Talasgücü Belediyespor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazıdağı Fosfatspor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Karaköprü Belediyespor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Adana Adaletgucu · 0-3 (L)
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bitlis Özgüzelderespor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeni Malatyaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kırşehir Belediyespor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Adanaspor · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeşilyurt Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 22 |
| 2 | Karaköprü Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Talasgücü Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Kırşehir Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 5 | Mazıdağı Fosfatspor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Niğde Belediyesispor | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 7 | Bitlis Özgüzelderespor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 17 |
| 8 | Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Adana Adaletgucu | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Osmaniyespor | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Ağrı 1970 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Silifke Belediyespor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Karaman FK | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 15 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -17 | 5 |
| 16 | Diyarbekirspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Yeni Malatyaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -24 | 0 |
| 18 | Adanaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -27 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mazıdağı Fosfatspor win, at 85.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.