· Analysis updated 09:48 UTC
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu vs Osmaniyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu and 1.55 for Osmaniyespor, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Osmaniyespor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu and 1.55 for Osmaniyespor, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kırklarelispor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Isparta 32 Spor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muş Sport Klübü · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs 1461 Trabzon FK · 0-3 (L)
Osmaniyespor
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Talasgücü Belediyespor · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazıdağı Fosfatspor · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2021-01-28T10:00:00.000Z · Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 0-1 Osmaniyespor (3. Lig - Group 3)
- 2020-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 3-0 Osmaniyespor (3. Lig - Group 3)
3. Lig - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeşilyurt Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 22 |
| 2 | Karaköprü Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Talasgücü Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Kırşehir Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 5 | Mazıdağı Fosfatspor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Niğde Belediyesispor | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 7 | Bitlis Özgüzelderespor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 17 |
| 8 | Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Adana Adaletgucu | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Osmaniyespor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Ağrı 1970 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Silifke Belediyespor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Karaman FK | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 15 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -17 | 5 |
| 16 | Diyarbekirspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Yeni Malatyaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -24 | 0 |
| 18 | Adanaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -27 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.