Yeni Orduspor vs Fatsa Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Yeni Orduspor and 1.00 for Fatsa Belediyespor, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Yeni Orduspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Yeni Orduspor win

77.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.00 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Yeni Orduspor home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fatsa Belediyespor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Yeni Orduspor win77%

Draw13%

Fatsa Belediyespor win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

23%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–08.2%
2–18.2%
3–08.2%
3–18.2%
4–06.2%

Recent form

Yeni Orduspor

2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs İskenderunspor · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kırklarelispor · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kütahyaspor · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Adana 01 FK · 2-3 (L)

Fatsa Belediyespor

2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Beykoz Anadolu · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kars 36 · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orduspor 1967 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Silivrispor · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-28T17:00:00.000Z · Yeni Orduspor 4-1 Fatsa Belediyespor (3. Lig - Play-offs)
2026-04-24T12:00:00.000Z · Yeni Orduspor 3-1 Fatsa Belediyespor (3. Lig - Play-offs)
2026-03-08T10:30:00.000Z · Yeni Orduspor 0-1 Fatsa Belediyespor (3. Lig - Group 3)
2025-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · Yeni Orduspor 0-1 Fatsa Belediyespor (3. Lig - Group 3)
2019-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · Yeni Orduspor 0-2 Fatsa Belediyespor (Türkiye Kupası)

3. Lig - Play-offs table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Yeni Orduspor	5	4	1	0	7	13
2	Çorluspor 1947	5	3	2	0	4	11
3	Ayvalikgucu	5	2	2	1	3	8
4	Yeşilyurt Belediyespor	5	2	2	1	2	8
5	Yozgat Bld Bozokspor	4	2	1	1	3	7
6	Talasgücü Belediyespor	4	1	2	1	1	5
7	Eskişehirspor	4	1	1	2	0	4
8	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	4	1	1	2	-2	4
9	Etimesgut	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Balıkesirspor	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Bursa Yıldırımspor	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Silifke Belediyespor	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Mazıdağı Fosfatspor	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Karsiyaka	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	2	0	0	2	-4	0
16	Fatsa Belediyespor	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Yeni Orduspor win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.