Yeoju Sports Complex · Analysis updated 23:50 UTC
Yeoju Sejong vs Dangjin Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Yeoju Sejong and 1.41 for Dangjin Citizen, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Dangjin Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dangjin Citizen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dangjin Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Yeoju Sejong and 1.41 for Dangjin Citizen, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Yeoju Sejong
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Chuncheon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Pocheon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mokpo City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangjin Citizen · 2-1 (W)
Dangjin Citizen
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Chuncheon · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeoju Sejong · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeoju Sejong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mokpo City · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.