Huish Park · Analysis updated 00:11 UTC
Yeovil Town vs Leatherhead Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Yeovil Town and 1.26 for Leatherhead, a combined total of 3.96. That distribution gives Yeovil Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yeovil Town win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yeovil Town home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leatherhead away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yeovil Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Yeovil Town and 1.26 for Leatherhead, a combined 3.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–06.3%
Recent form
Yeovil Town
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Leatherhead · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wealdstone · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston United · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Worthing · 1-1 (D)
Leatherhead
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastbourne Borough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Yeovil Town · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeovil Town · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheshunt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yeovil Town win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.