· Analysis updated 17:18 UTC
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.10 expected goals for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor and 0.77 for Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Yeşilyurt Belediyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win
82.9% probability
Expected goals
3.10 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yeşilyurt Belediyespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 11% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.10 goals for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor and 0.77 for Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.4%
- 2–010.1%
- 4–08.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bitlis Özgüzelderespor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Malatyaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelecek Siirt · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · 9-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Adanaspor · 8-0 (W)
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Talasgücü Belediyespor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Mazıdağı Fosfatspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kırşehir Belediyespor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeşilyurt Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 22 |
| 2 | Karaköprü Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Talasgücü Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Kırşehir Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 5 | Mazıdağı Fosfatspor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Niğde Belediyesispor | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 7 | Bitlis Özgüzelderespor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 17 |
| 8 | Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Adana Adaletgucu | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Osmaniyespor | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Ağrı 1970 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Silifke Belediyespor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Karaman FK | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 15 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -17 | 5 |
| 16 | Diyarbekirspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Yeni Malatyaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -24 | 0 |
| 18 | Adanaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -27 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win, at 82.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.