· Analysis updated 08:27 UTC
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs Kırşehir Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor and 1.20 for Kırşehir Belediyespor, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Yeşilyurt Belediyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
2.22 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kırşehir Belediyespor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yeşilyurt Belediyespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.22 goals for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor and 1.20 for Kırşehir Belediyespor, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–07.3%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bitlis Özgüzelderespor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Malatyaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelecek Siirt · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · 9-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Adanaspor · 8-0 (W)
Kırşehir Belediyespor
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Karaman FK · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Silifke Belediyespor · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bitlis Özgüzelderespor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Malatyaspor · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeşilyurt Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 22 |
| 2 | Karaköprü Belediyespor | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Talasgücü Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Kırşehir Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 5 | Mazıdağı Fosfatspor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Niğde Belediyesispor | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 7 | Bitlis Özgüzelderespor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 17 |
| 8 | Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Adana Adaletgucu | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Osmaniyespor | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Ağrı 1970 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Silifke Belediyespor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Karaman FK | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 15 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -17 | 5 |
| 16 | Diyarbekirspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Yeni Malatyaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -24 | 0 |
| 18 | Adanaspor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -27 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.