Yeni Malatya Stadyumu · Analysis updated 12:36 UTC
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs Talasgücü Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor and 1.23 for Talasgücü Belediyespor, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Yeşilyurt Belediyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Talasgücü Belediyespor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yeşilyurt Belediyespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Yeşilyurt Belediyespor and 1.23 for Talasgücü Belediyespor, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bitlis Özgüzelderespor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Malatyaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelecek Siirt · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Yozgat Bld Bozokspor · 9-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Adanaspor · 8-0 (W)
Talasgücü Belediyespor
- 2026-05-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-05-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Yeşilyurt Belediyespor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazıdağı Fosfatspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazıdağı Fosfatspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Niğde Belediyesispor · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeni Orduspor | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Çorluspor 1947 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Ayvalikgucu | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Yeşilyurt Belediyespor | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Yozgat Bld Bozokspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Talasgücü Belediyespor | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Eskişehirspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Etimesgut | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Balıkesirspor | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Bursa Yıldırımspor | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Silifke Belediyespor | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Mazıdağı Fosfatspor | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Karsiyaka | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yeşilyurt Belediyespor win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.