Nissan Stadium · Analysis updated 22:12 UTC
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fukushima United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Yokohama F. Marinos and 1.33 for Fukushima United, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Yokohama F. Marinos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yokohama F. Marinos win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yokohama F. Marinos home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fukushima United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yokohama F. Marinos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Yokohama F. Marinos and 1.33 for Fukushima United, a combined 3.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
Yokohama F. Marinos
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sangyo University · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-0 (W)
Fukushima United
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Roasso Kumamoto · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yokohama F. Marinos win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.