Yokohama F. Marinos vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Yokohama F. Marinos and 1.07 for Shimizu S-pulse, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Yokohama F. Marinos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Yokohama F. Marinos win

53.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Yokohama F. Marinos home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shimizu S-pulse away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Yokohama F. Marinos win54%

Draw23%

Shimizu S-pulse win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–010.4%
2–19.8%
2–09.2%
0–16.3%

Recent form

Yokohama F. Marinos

2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokyo Verdy · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs JEF United Chiba · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Shimizu S-pulse · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-0 (D)

Shimizu S-pulse

2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Machida Zelvia · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-17T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Mito Hollyhock · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 Shimizu S-pulse (J-League Cup)
2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · Yokohama F. Marinos 1-0 Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)
2026-06-06T08:00:00.000Z · Yokohama F. Marinos 3-0 Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)
2026-05-31T05:00:00.000Z · Yokohama F. Marinos 1-1 Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)
2025-08-16T09:30:00.000Z · Yokohama F. Marinos 3-1 Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)
2025-04-16T10:00:00.000Z · Yokohama F. Marinos 2-3 Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)
2022-07-02T10:00:00.000Z · Yokohama F. Marinos 5-3 Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)
2022-03-06T05:00:00.000Z · Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)
2021-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · Yokohama F. Marinos 2-2 Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)
2021-05-30T04:00:00.000Z · Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Yokohama F. Marinos win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.