Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Yokohama F. Marinos and 0.60 for Tokyo Verdy, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Yokohama F. Marinos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Yokohama F. Marinos win

66.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.82 – 0.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Yokohama F. Marinos home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tokyo Verdy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yokohama F. Marinos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 22% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Yokohama F. Marinos and 0.60 for Tokyo Verdy, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Yokohama F. Marinos win67%

Draw22%

Tokyo Verdy win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–016.2%
2–014.7%
1–19.7%
3–08.9%
0–08.9%

Recent form

Yokohama F. Marinos

2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sangyo University · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-0 (W)

Tokyo Verdy

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagan Tosu · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Urawa · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Biwako Shiga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	11	8	2	1	20	26
2	FC Tokyo	11	7	3	1	13	24
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	11	7	2	2	15	23
4	Vissel Kobe	11	7	1	3	7	22
5	Kashiwa Reysol	11	7	1	3	5	22
6	Kashima	11	6	2	3	5	20
7	Kawasaki Frontale	11	5	4	2	6	19
8	Urawa	11	6	0	5	-3	18
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	11	4	5	2	4	17
10	Fagiano Okayama	11	5	1	5	-1	16
11	Shimizu S-pulse	11	4	2	5	-6	14
12	Nagoya Grampus	11	4	1	6	-4	13
13	Cerezo Osaka	11	3	4	4	-7	13
14	V-varen Nagasaki	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Gamba Osaka	11	2	4	5	-7	10
16	Mito Hollyhock	11	2	3	6	-4	9
17	Kyoto Sanga	11	2	3	6	-8	9
18	Avispa Fukuoka	11	2	1	8	-6	7
19	JEF United Chiba	11	1	3	7	-12	6
20	Tokyo Verdy	11	0	5	6	-14	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Yokohama F. Marinos win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.