MNHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Yokohama FC vs Urawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Yokohama FC and 2.25 for Urawa, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Yokohama FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
59.7% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yokohama FC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Urawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yokohama FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 19% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Yokohama FC and 2.25 for Urawa, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.3%
- 2–16.3%
- 1–15.6%
- 2–35.3%
Recent form
Yokohama FC
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gifu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Iwaki · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Albirex Niigata · 5-0 (W)
Urawa
- 2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tokyo Verdy · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.